New research and analysis by Rystad Energy suggests that a rethink of the European Union’s Arctic policy could help keep Norwegian Barents Sea gas within Europe’s supply mix during the 2030s, offering a nearby and relatively lower-emission source as Europe becomes increasingly reliant on the global LNG market.

The European Commission is currently reviewing its 2021 Arctic policy and has opened a public consultation running until March 16, 2026. Since Barents Sea projects typically require five to ten years to move from discovery to stable production, policy signals issued by the EU today will determine whether additional volumes from currently open Norwegian areas become available by the mid-2030s — or whether Europe will depend more heavily on imported LNG over the next decade.

A More Targeted Policy Without Undermining Climate Goals

Rystad’s analysis suggests that the EU could allow higher production in the Barents Sea by defining clearer geographical and operational boundaries without necessarily weakening its climate policies. This could be achieved by defining the “Arctic” more precisely and linking any activity to strict emissions and environmental safeguards.

Such an approach would allow differentiation between Norwegian areas already open for exploration and more environmentally sensitive zones. However, the proposal is likely to remain controversial among environmental groups and would not fundamentally change the broader debate around Arctic oil and gas drilling, though it could influence how buyers and policymakers assess supply sources during the 2030s.

Under Rystad’s base-case scenario for the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, Norway is expected to continue supplying around 20%–30% of Europe’s gas demand through 2050, while Europe’s dependence on LNG is projected to rise from 30% to 50%, increasing exposure to global market volatility.

Resource Size and Development Challenges

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates that areas currently open for exploration in the Barents Sea contain around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas resources, equal to roughly 22 trillion cubic feet.

Rystad expects projects approved before 2030 to contribute about 2.25 billion barrels of oil equivalent in cumulative production through 2050. Additional output would require new discoveries, coordinated multi-field development, and — most importantly — sufficient export infrastructure.

Infrastructure as a Key Constraint

Infrastructure remains one of the biggest challenges for long-term expansion. A study by Gassco and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate found that additional export capacity from the Barents Sea could be commercially viable if sufficient production volumes are proven.

Currently, the Hammerfest LNG export terminal is the main outlet, but it is largely tied to the Snøhvit field, limiting flexibility for additional production. A pipeline connecting southward to the Norwegian Sea network is a potential option, but would require large production volumes and coordinated project timelines to justify financing.

Emissions and Environmental Standards

Emissions are a central issue in the ongoing policy review, directly affecting how buyers compare future gas supply sources.

Norwegian production is globally recognized for relatively low emissions, and pipeline gas from Norway is considered a lower-emission option for Europe. At the Snøhvit project, carbon dioxide is captured and reinjected offshore, while planned electrification of the Snøhvit–Hammerfest facilities is expected to further reduce the project’s carbon footprint.

Environmental critics argue that lower emissions intensity does not change the fact that burning gas still adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, methane intensity and lifecycle emissions are increasingly being used in procurement and policy frameworks to differentiate between energy sources.

A Managed Approach Rather Than Full Opening

The report argues that fully opening the Arctic for exploration is unrealistic. Instead, a strict regulatory framework could allow continued development in already opened Norwegian areas while excluding environmentally sensitive regions.

Any approvals could be tied to measurable criteria such as:

Limiting methane and carbon dioxide emissions

Ending routine gas flaring

Electrifying facilities where possible

Independent verification and transparent environmental reporting

Additional safeguards may include protection of sensitive ecosystems, seasonal restrictions on operations, and consultation with Sami communities, coastal populations, and the fishing industry.

Energy Security and Market Shifts

Demand security is also a key factor, as periodic policy reviews could reduce stranded-asset risks if gas consumption declines faster than expected.

Ultimately, Europe is likely to compare marginal gas sources rather than add massive new volumes, using emissions and lifecycle metrics to select remaining lower-impact supplies — a shift that could help steer demand toward less carbon-intensive energy sources during the energy transition.

US stock indices rose during Wednesday trading as the technology sector continued to recover from the sharp losses recorded earlier this week.

US President Donald Trump delivered an upbeat message on the strength of the economy during his State of the Union address before Congress, helping support investor sentiment.

Later today, after the market close, Nvidia is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings for the past three months.

Nvidia’s results come at a time when investors are reassessing elevated valuations in technology stocks amid growing concerns over heavy capital spending by major cloud-computing companies on artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, investors are also monitoring tensions between the United States and Iran this week, alongside evaluating Trump’s proposal to raise global tariffs to 15%, following the implementation of a 10% tariff on global imports on Tuesday.

In trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% (about 100 points) to 49,275 as of 15:52 GMT. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.5% (around 32 points) to 6,922, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% (about 217 points) to 23,080.

Nickel prices rose during Wednesday trading, extending gains amid concerns over tighter supply after Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine to sharply cut production in a move aimed at tightening global supply and supporting prices.

Indonesia plans to issue production quotas ranging between 260 million and 270 million tons of nickel ore this year, according to Bloomberg. While slightly above previous estimates of 250–260 million tons, the figure remains well below the 379 million-ton target set for 2025. Authorities manage output levels through annual mining permits known as RKABs, with volumes subject to mid-year review.

PT Weda Bay Nickel is set to receive a quota of 12 million tons of ore this year, down sharply from 42 million tons in 2025. The mine, located on Halmahera Island in North Maluku, is jointly owned by Tsingshan Holding Group Co, Eramet SA, and PT Aneka Tambang. Eramet confirmed the reduction, noting it intends to request a review, while Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said quotas remain under assessment.

Price Management

Indonesia is seeking to curb a persistent global surplus after its output surged to roughly 65% of global supply, contributing to two years of price declines and forcing high-cost producers in Australia and New Caledonia to shut operations.

The quota reductions are expected to significantly affect Weda Bay, which had planned to raise output to more than 60 million tons of ore to support a nearby industrial complex. Instead, the mine has imported large volumes of ore from the Philippines to offset domestic shortages.

Nickel is widely used in stainless steel production and electric vehicle batteries, but demand from the battery sector has been weaker than expected as some manufacturers shift toward nickel-free battery chemistries.

In January, Macquarie Group raised its 2026 nickel price forecast by 18% to $17,750 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, citing a sharp reduction in the expected surplus due to tighter Indonesian quotas.

Coal Output Cuts

Indonesia is also moving to reduce thermal coal production, with mining quotas expected to fall by around 25% compared with the previous year. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said these cuts could force some operations to close and leave overseas buyers searching for alternative supplies.

In market trading, spot nickel contracts rose 1.8% to $17,900 per ton as of 15:32 GMT.

Bitcoin jumped 3% to reach $66,000 after US President Donald Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address in US history.

During the nearly two-hour speech before Congress, Trump praised what he described as a “booming US economy,” injecting fresh optimism into cryptocurrency markets.

Data from CoinGecko showed that investors poured approximately $52 billion into cryptocurrencies while the speech was underway.

Although Trump did not mention cryptocurrencies directly, the 79-year-old Republican president highlighted broader market performance, saying: “The stock market has set 53 new record highs since the election. Everybody is making money, big money.”

He added that global investors have injected $18 trillion into the US economy since he took office, aligning with bullish projections previously outlined by economists such as Ed Yardeni.

The upbeat tone comes as Bitcoin remains down 49% from its October peak of $126,000, amid concerns over significant economic disruptions.

However, the cryptocurrency trimmed part of its gains registered during the speech and was trading slightly above $65,000 at the time of writing.

This follows weeks after data showed that the US labor market posted its weakest January performance since 2009 — when the economy was emerging from the worst crisis since the Great Depression — with more than 100,000 layoffs.

Doubts Over the Recovery

Despite the optimistic speech, analysts remain skeptical about the cryptocurrency market’s ability to regain momentum quickly, given multiple headwinds facing the sector.

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, said in a note to investors that slowing regulatory momentum and continued selling in the technology sector are adding pressure to Bitcoin’s downside trend.

Artificial Intelligence Concerns

Concerns are also mounting over the broader economic impact of artificial intelligence.

A report by Citrini Research titled “The Global Intelligence Crisis 2028” unsettled markets, particularly technology stocks, which are closely correlated with Bitcoin’s price.

The report outlines a scenario in which AI systems replace administrative workers, leaving them unable to service their debts and triggering a 38% decline in the S&P 500.

BlackRock’s flagship technology fund fell an additional 3% after the report gained wide attention. The fund, which tracks major technology companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir Technologies, is now down 27% year-to-date.

Not everyone shares these concerns about AI’s labor market impact.

Laurent Kssis, research analyst at Kaiko, said the effect would likely be gradual: “Will it impact the job market? To some extent yes, but it’s about adapting to new technology or being left behind. I believe we will see a soft landing in the sense that it will gradually affect and reshape certain roles.”

He also noted that if AI were to trigger widespread job losses, the US government and the Federal Reserve would likely step in with liquidity support similar to measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially supporting Bitcoin prices.

“Bitcoin tends to rise in response to increases in money supply and concerns about currency debasement,” he said.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, offered a similar outlook earlier in February, suggesting that renewed money printing by the Federal Reserve could push Bitcoin to new record highs, although the timing remains uncertain.